The countdown to first pitch for the Division I season is ON! Before we get there, though, let’s go out on a limb here momentarily with some Bold Predictions for the year that is upon us…
1. Oregon returns to the Super Regionals
>>> The Ducks garner mixed expectations in some softball circles this year, though the general consensus is that the program will continue to get better as their rebound from the disastrous 2019 campaign continues. Haley Cruse is one of softball’s best-known personalities, but what occasionally gets lost in that distinction is her status as one of the game’s best players. The Ducks have a 3-headed pitching monster at their disposal, and one of the nation’s top pitching coaches as their head coach in Missy Lombardi. The PAC-12 intends to play a full schedule this season, and I expect Oregon to challenge and ultimately pull off a return to the Super Regional round. Their pitching depth will be key in the postseason especially.
2. The Big Ten gets no more than four teams into the NCAA tournament – and that 4th team is Iowa.
>>> This is honestly two bold predictions wrapped up into one neat and tidy package. For starters, expect the Big Ten to be significantly downgraded in the eyes of the selection committee when the time comes to pick the teams for the NCAA tournament. Thanks to their decision to play only conference opponents, the metrics by which the league can be truly graded are almost non-existent; the conference’s decision may prove to be a wise one, but it’s not illegitimate to expect them to be penalized as the only multi-bid league to play in a conference-only format this year.
On the second point, I really like the look of Iowa this year. I’m a big believer in pitching depth, and the Hawkeyes quietly have a really nice 1-2 punch with Allison Doocy and Lauren Shaw. While home/away doesn’t matter as much this year with no huge crowds of fans in the stands, it is worth nothing that Iowa plays Michigan during the Big Ten’s Florida bubble; brings Northwestern to Iowa City; and does not play Minnesota. Those are the consensus top three teams in the league, and Iowa has about as favorable of a schedule as possible against them. The Hawkeyes were already climbing a bit in 2020, and look for them to turn a few heads, even in conference-only play, in 2021.
3. Two unseeded teams make the Super Regionals
>>> These Super Regional predictions could go out the window in a heartbeat if the selection committee elects to change the format of the NCAA tournament, but in the tournament’s current makeup, this could be the year that we see some upsets coming out of the Regional round. During the 2019 tournament, three seeded teams had to win two games in the regional final to advance to the Supers and an additional four seeded teams were pushed to a winner-take-all regional final after losing the first game on Sunday. Only one regional resulted in an upset, though, and it was none of those same seven – James Madison won both games in the regional final to upset seeded Michigan. In 2021, the mix of returned and departed seniors coupled with a plethora of what will be battle-tested teams will see at least two unseeded programs able to get the job done in the postseason, even on somebody else’s home turf.
4. Shelbi Sunseri returns to form and becomes a national Player of the Year contender for LSU
>>> It seems odd to call a .328 batting average and a 1.20 ERA a “down” year, but Sunseri just didn’t quite look like the same player of 2019, when she proved herself a breakout star as a sophomore. Expect her to hit her stride much quicker this season, and expect LSU to reap the benefits of that. I picked LSU to win the national title, and I count Sunseri as a major factor in that prediction. She’s a difference-maker both with her bat and with her arm as part of the Tigers’ sturdy stable of hurlers.
5. Texas will still challenge for a Women’s College World Series berth.
>>> The loss of Miranda Elish to a post-New Year’s decision to skip the season cannot be underscored enough. She was a huge piece of the puzzle that had Texas riding so highly a season ago, and she figured to play an extraordinary role in the team’s success this year. Despite her absence, though, Texas is still a strong team. Shealyn O’Leary and Molly Jacobsen each have experience on big stages, and the team’s pitching staff is 5-arms deep. Janae Jefferson is still Janae Jefferson offensively and defensively, and with players like Mary Iakopo and Taylor Ellsworth, the offense has the potential to be potent. Don’t look past Ellsworth, either; she still counts as being on her “comeback” from injury, and she’s sure to be a motivated player this year.
6. Two Power 5 conferences will not be represented in Oklahoma City.
>>> Spoiler alert: It’s the ACC and the Big 10. Florida State is easily the ACC’s best option to get to Oklahoma City, though Virginia Tech has the lineup to challenge, as well, if they can secure some pitching depth. Barring an upset, though, I don’t have FSU in my final field of eight. While math might be what keeps the Seminoles out, simple logic is what will leave the Big 10 on the outside looking in. If the Big 10 has one team that hosts a regional, they should consider themselves lucky. The postseason will also be a hard road to hoe for teams that have not played anyone outside their own league.
7. UCLA will not win the National Championship.
>>> This one could be the boldest, or it could be the most stupid on this list. Here’s my rationale: As stacked as this UCLA roster is, they should be world beaters. They could run the table in conference play. They could enter the postseason undefeated and no one would bat an eye. But let’s look at the Bruins’ recent history. For a four-year period following their 2010 national title (2011-14), the Bruins did not even reach the Women’s College World Series. In 2015, ’16, and ’17, the team made it to Oklahoma City but couldn’t reach Semifinal Sunday. The 2019 season that saw the Bruins win the National Championship was the first time since 2010 that the team had even reached the WCWS Finals. That brief history lesson isn’t to say that the Bruins won’t be good this year; make no mistake, the Bruins will be VERY good this year. But even with a stacked lineup and a major 1-2 punch in the pitching circle, a repeat championship won’t be a cake walk.
