May 16th is D-Day for many teams who will await to find out their postseason fate. For some teams, the answer is obvious; a high RPI, strength of schedule, or some big wins in a Power conference can give many teams breathing room heading into Selection Sunday.
For other teams, though, there might be some heart palpitations between now and then. We decided to take a look at seven teams who are seen as “on the bubble” in our Bracketology, and to analyze their chances of seeing their name on a Regional bracket line.
One piece of information that is worthy of note in this category is the NCAA’s rule change, or adaptation, for the 2021 season: Generally, a team must have a record at or above .500 to be considered for an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament. This season, however, that requirement is not in place. Any team may be selected for an at-large bid, regardless of record, and a sub-.500 record will not by itself keep any team out.
Mississippi State
Let’s begin with the elephant in the room or, rather, the Bulldog. Mississippi State has been the worst team in the SEC for much of the year, and now only share the title with South Carolina after their series win over the Gamecocks last week. Mississippi State has had a rough go of things this year, including an early loss to Southern Illinois and come-from-behind wins over Alcorn State, Western Kentucky, and Southern Miss. With five games to go – including Wednesday’s rescheduled doubleheader vs. Tennessee – the Bulldogs are five games over .500. They must win at least one game against either Tennessee or Georgia to guarantee themselves a record above .500 going into the SEC tournament. If Mississippi State finishes the season above the .500 mark – including after the SEC tournament, which now includes a #12 vs. #13 play-in game as the opener – they’ll make the NCAA tournament field. However, should they lose the remaining five regular-season matchups and lose the play-in game to the conference tournament, they will be below .500 and the committee may leave them out, rule change notwithstanding.
Prediction: In
Kansas
This weekend’s series against Iowa State could not be more important for Kansas. The Jayhawks currently sit as the 6th Big 12 team in the RPI rankings and hold the #43 overall position in those rankings. A win over Missouri in a border battle matchup is a high mark in the Jayhawks’ favor, but they also have a wins and losses issue – currently sitting at 22-23, the program would not make the NCAA tournament in a normal year. This is not a normal year, though, so the team’s qualifications for an at-large bid must be more closely examined. Kansas is 2-13 in conference play and 2-12 in road games this season; their best non-conference wins are the victory over Missouri and a win against Wichita State, while their worst losses were to UTSA, Northern Iowa, and a series loss to Texas Tech in conference play. If the season ended today, Kansas does not look like an NCAA tournament team, regardless of record, but a strong showing against Iowa State and in the Big 12 tournament could change that perception.
Prediction: Out
NC State
After pulling a game from LSU and from Florida State, the Wolfpack have gained some traction in some softball circles. Despite that, though, they still have some massive hills to climb to truly challenge for an at-large berth in the NCAA tournament. In the latest RPI, NC State is ranked at #90 – and that’s an improvement. The Wolfpack’s RPI took a nose dive after an early-season 4-game series against Gardner-Webb and a 3-game weekend set against North Carolina A&T; despite going 7-0 in those games, playing low-ranked opponents significantly impacted the Wolfpack’s rating, as well. In conference play, the Wolfpack split with Virginia; lost a game to Boston College; and failed to pick up a win against either Notre Dame or Clemson. Even with Abby Trahan in the circle and a high-octane offense, a surprise run to a tournament championship is NC State’s best bet to go dancing.
Prediction: Out
Southern Illinois
Since beginning the season on a lengthy winning streak – a streak that included the afore-mentioned win over Mississippi State in Starkville – the Salukis have lost their way a bit. They have fallen to 4th in the conference standings, with a 16-7 league record, and currently sit at #50 in the latest RPI rankings. The Salukis have snuck into the NCAA tournament before, in 2019, so it’s not out of the question for Kerri Blaylock’s squad to pull off another such achievement. A series against Northern Iowa marks the end of the regular season for SIU, and fortunes could change very quickly following that series and the MVC tournament.
Prediction: True Bubble
South Alabama
While it’s been six years since the Jaguars’ last NCAA tournament appearance, the program’s re-emergence this season has meant far more than that. Becky Clark’s club has floundered considerably over the last few years, but the ship now looks to be righted and the Jags have turned some heads this season. Two non-conference wins against SEC foes Georgia and Alabama at their own home parks probably had something to do with that, as well, but the Jags have been playing like a tournament-bound team for much of the year. A series sweep at the hands of Georgia Southern this past weekend put a significant damper on the Jags’ postseason hopes, but was hardly the end of those hopes. Winning the Sun Belt tournament would certainly make breathing a bit easier for the Jags on Selection Sunday, but with an RPI of 49 in the latest rankings and two major wins that have aged considerably well, things seem to be looking up in terms of postseason chances.
Prediction: In
Tulsa
Three teams from the American Athletic Conference seem unavoidably destined to reach the NCAA tournament – Wichita State and UCF have quality bodies of work through this season, while South Florida is trending upward towards the end of the season and are playing lights-out. Could Tulsa help the American place four teams in the tournament? At this point, a non-Power 5 league getting even three teams into the tournament seems like a stretch – four teams seems laughable. But it is possible. Tulsa took the 3-1 series win over UCF and pulled games from both South Florida and Wichita State. Their RPI will also be helped by a 3-game series against Texas A&M and games against both Oklahoma State and Kansas. At the same time, a 75 ranking in the RPI is not a great starting spot for the Golden Hurricane.
Prediction: Out
Delaware
You might call Delaware one of a handful of “enigma” teams that are highly-ranked in the RPI through much of this season; other teams to makes appearances include George Washington and Villanova. The teams have weak strengths of schedule, but thanks to abbreviated slates and other factors, they maintain high RPI ratings. This would normally be the point where somebody rags on the RPI, but at this point in time, it’s the only comparable metric by which all teams can be judged, so it makes sense to rely on it fairly heavily. Delaware is not a bad team, by any means, and they have played well. But unless the committee decides to absolutely simply phone in their selections based solely on the RPI, the Blue Hens should bank on a conference championship as their way into the field of 64.
Prediction: Out
